APPENDIX A: POPULATION AND HOUSING

This appendix provides all of the population and housing statistics that are used in this report. The Office of State Planning provides population estimates every year, as required by New Hampshire law (see methodology in Appendix A). The Office of State Planning bases these statistics upon building permit activity, as reported by municipalities. These are the most current official comparative statistics available.

In addition to Census data and OSP estimates, many of the derivations found in this chapter have been taken from Regional Housing Needs Assessment, 1999 by NRPC.

Population Change

Since the 1930’s, the population has increased to the estimated level of 1,982 in 1998 largely due to the proximity of Mont Vernon to major employment centers in the region. Major increases began to occur between 1950 and 1960, when the population grew a yearly average of 4.4%. The following decades saw a population increase of 5.5% and 5.9% respectively. Between 1980 and 1990, the population of the Town grew at a rate of 2.6%. In 1998, the rate of population growth was 1.2%.

Despite the decreasing rate of growth, between 1990 and 1998, Mont Vernon (9.4%) has grown faster than the Nashua Region (8.6%), Hillsborough County (8.4%) and the State of New Hampshire (6.8%).

TABLE A-1

MONT VERNON POPULATION CHANGE 1890-1998

Year

Population

%

Change

Numerical

Change

Avg. Annual

Change

1880

517

NA

NA

NA

1890

479

-7.4

-38

-.7

1900

462

-5.4

-17

-.5

1910

413

-8.8

-49

-.9

1920

308

-25.4

-105

-2.5

1930

302

-1.9

-6

-.2

1940

340

12.8

38

1.3

1950

405

19.1

65

1.9

1960

585

44.4

180

4.4

1970

906

54.9

321

5.5

1980

1,444

59.4

538

5.9

1990

1,812

25.5

368

2.6

1998*

1,982

9.4

170

1.2

Source: US Census (1890-1990) and *1998 OSP Population Estimate.

TABLE A-2

POPULATION CHANGE 1960-1998

 

Mont

Vernon

Pop.

%

Change

Nashua

Region

Pop.

%

Change

Hills. Co.

Pop.

%

Change

NH

Pop.

%

Change

1960

585

44.4

63,893

-

178,161

-

606,900

-

1970

906

54.9

100,862

57.9

223,941

25.7

737,579

21.5

1980

1,444

59.4

138,089

36.9

276,608

23.5

920,475

19.9

1990

1,812

25.5

171,478

24.2

335,838

21.4

1,109,252

20.5

1998*

1,982

9.4

186,499

8.6

363,917

8.3

1,185,000

6.8

Source: US Decennial Censuses 1960 - 1990 and *1998 OSP Population Estimate.

TABLE A-3

POPULATION CHANGE BETWEEN 1990-1998

RANKED BY COMMUNITY

Municipality

Pop.

1990

Pop.

1998

%

Change

1. Nashua

79,662

83,209

4.45%

2. Merrimack

22,156

23,899

7.87%

3. Hudson

19,530

21,723

11.23%

4. Milford

11,795

12,859

9.02%

5. Pelham

9,408

10,793

14.72%

6. Amherst

9,068

10,229

12.80%

7. Litchfield

5,516

6,844

24.08%

8. Hollis

5,705

6,760

18.49%

9. Brookline

2,410

3,408

41.41%

10. Wilton

3,122

3,332

6.73%

11. Mont Vernon

1,812

1,982

9.38%

12. Lyndeborough

1,212

1,416

16.83%

       

Nashua Region

171,396

186,454

8.79%

State of NH

1,109,177

1,185,000

6.84%

Current Population Estimates

TABLE A-4

CURRENT POPULATION ESTIMATES

1998 Rank

Municipality

1998

OSP Estimate

1990

US Census

1980

US Census

1. Nashua

83,209

79,662

67,865

2. Merrimack

23,899

22,156

15,406

3. Hudson

21,723

19,530

14,022

4. Milford

12,859

11,795

8,658

5. Pelham

10,793

9,408

8,090

6. Amherst

10,229

9,068

8,243

7. Litchfield

6,844

5,516

4,150

8. Hollis

6,760

5,705

4,679

9. Brookline

3,408

2,410

1,766

10. Wilton

3,332

3,122

2,669

11. Mont Vernon

1,982

1,812

1,444

12. Lyndeborough

1,416

1,212

792

       

Nashua Region

186,454

171,396

137,784

State of NH

1,185,000

1,109,177

920,475

Population Projections

Mont Vernon’s population is expected to continue growing by approximately 1.7% annually over the next 20 years. If projections hold true, this growth may add more than 1,000 persons by 2020; however, the actual rate of growth in any community is unpredictable and due to forces beyond the local control. Keeping this in mind, it can be reasonably expected that Mont Vernon will likely grow slower than the NRPC communities of Brookline, Litchfield and Hollis, but at a similar rate with the remaining communities with the exception of Nashua.

TABLE A-5

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

NRPC REGION

 

1990

1996

         

% Change

% Annual

Town

Census

Est. Pop.

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

('90-'20)

('90-'20)

Amherst

9,068

9,663

10,300

11,295

12,113

13,547

14,686

62%

2.1%

Brookline

2,410

3,128

4,140

5,135

5,953

7,243

8,279

244%

8.1%

Hollis

5,705

6,481

7,374

8,535

9,299

10,696

11,940

109%

3.6%

Hudson

19,530

21,072

23,156

24,904

26,267

29,013

31,656

62%

2.1%

Litchfield

5,516

6,540

7,612

8,856

9,674

10,749

11,785

114%

3.8%

Lyndeborough

1,294

1,414

1,557

1,756

1,920

2,178

2,427

88%

2.9%

Merrimack

22,156

23,200

24,601

26,664

28,126

30,813

32,886

48%

1.6%

Milford

11,795

12,660

13,392

14,452

15,106

16,073

17,006

44%

1.5%

Mont Vernon

1,812

1,960

2,115

2,326

2,448

2,708

2,978

64%

2.1%

Nashua

79,662

82,285

84,667

86,906

87,997

89,072

91,145

14%

0.5%

Pelham

9,408

10,374

11,506

13,082

14,118

15,730

17,285

84%

2.8%

Wilton

3,122

3,243

3,433

3,704

3,889

4,104

4,363

40%

1.3%

                   

Regional Total

171,478

182,020

216,910

231,926

44%

1.5%

Source: New Hampshire Population Projections, 1997, New Hampshire Office of State Planning.

Age Distribution

TABLE A-6

AGE DISTRIBUTIONS IN 1990

MONT VERNON, NRPC REGION, STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE

 

Age

Mont

Vernon

Number

 

% Total

Region

Number

 

% Total

State

Number

 

% Total

0 - 4

151

8.3

14,087

8.2

84,631

7.6

5 -9

164

9.1

12,698

7.4

80,429

7.3

10 -14

146

8.1

11,549

6.7

71,748

6.5

15 -19

124

6.8

11,466

6.7

76,448

6.9

20-24

85

4.7

11,827

6.9

82,102

7.4

25-34

269

14.8

34,657

20.2

205,815

18.6

35-44

367

20.3

29,766

17.4

183,649

16.6

45-54

225

12.4

18,920

11.0

111,387

10.0

55-59

71

3.9

6,635

3.9

43,851

4.0

60-64

64

3.5

5,732

3.3

44,208

4.0

65-74

75

4.1

8,415

4.9

71,837

6.5

75+

71

3.9

5,726

3.3

53,147

4.8

             

Total

1812

100.0

171,478

100.0

1,109,252

100.0

Source: 1990 US Census.

TABLE A-7

POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS

MONT VERNON, 1970-90

Age

1970

Total

% of

Total

1980

Total

% of

Total

1990

Total

% of

Total

0 to 4

114

12.6

97

6.7

151

8.3

5 to 19

283

31.2

412

28.5

434

24.0

20 to 34

197

21.7

365

25.3

354

19.5

35 to 64

247

27.3

475

32.9

727

40.1

65 +

65

7.2

95

6.6

146

8.1

             

Total

906

100

1,444

100

1812

100

Source: US Census.

The percentage of school children in 1990 age 5-19 was greater than that for the region, 24.0% compared to 20.8%. While the relative percentage of individuals in this category has declined since 1970 from 31.2% to 24.0%, the actual number had increased from 283 to 434. The percentage of pre-school children was slightly higher than that for the region.

The working age population between ages 20 to 64 has steadily increased in numbers and percentages, from 49% in 1970 to 59.6% in 1990. The greatest increase occurred in the population aged 35-64 . Between 1970 and 1990, this age group increased from 247 to 727 persons representing 27.3% and 40.1 % of the total population. As of 1990, the percentage of Mont Vernon’s population aged 35-64, was higher than the same category for the region, county, or state, 35.6, 34.2, and 34.5% respectively. The other segment of the working population aged 20-34 actually showed a decrease between 1980 and 1990 from 25.3 to 19.5%. The data suggests that the age distribution in Mont Vernon, as it is throughout the country is fast approaching retirement age.

Housing Supply

During the 1970’s, the population increased by nearly 60%, and housing units increased by 81%. The 1980’s saw increases in population and housing at similar rates. Other communities in the region had housing growth outstripping population growth, in part due to more conspicuous reductions in household size. An economic downturn in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s slowed the growth of both housing and population. Between 1990 and 1997, a total of 78 building permits were issued, indicating that growth continues, but at a more reasonable rate.

TABLE A-8

MONT VERNON HOUSING GROWTH 1990-1998

 

New

Total

Year

Units

Housing Units

1990

9

623

1991

6

629

1992

12

641

1993

10

651

1994

16

667

1995

13

680

1996

13

693

1997

3

696

1998

13

709

1999

22

731

Average

11.7

N/A

Source: Office of State Planning; 1999 data from Mont Vernon Annual Report.

TABLE A-9

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT ACTIVITY, 1990-1998

Proportional Growth, Ranked

Rank/

Community

Housing Units,

1990

Housing Units,

1998

Percent Change

1990-1998

1. Brookline

881

1,316

49.4%

2. Litchfield

1,845

2,393

29.7%

3. Hollis

2,006

2,499

24.6%

4. Lyndeborough

488

584

19.7%

5. Amherst

3,179

3,784

19.0%

6. Pelham

3,118

3,707

18.9%

7. Mont Vernon

614

709

15.5%

8. Hudson

6,902

7,917

14.7%

9. Merrimack

7,915

8,846

11.8%

10. Milford

4,793

5,276

10.1%

11. Wilton

1,251

1,364

9.0%

12. Nashua

33,383

34,771

4.2%

       

NRPC Region

66,375

73,166

10.2%

State of NH

502,247

546,744

8.9%

Source: NRPC Housing Needs Assessment, from Office of State Planning estimates.

Tables A-10 and A-11 show the extent of growth in new dwelling units that has occurred in the Nashua region and state between 1990 and 1997. Mont Vernon (12.7%) ranked well above the regional (8.6%) and State (7.5%) in terms of growth rate during this time. Mont Vernon was the seventh fastest growing community in the region during this time.

TABLE A-10

HOUSING GROWTH 1960-1999

Mont Vernon

 

New

Total

% Change

Year

Units

Units

Units

1960-69

N/A

269

N/A

1970-79

218

487

81.0

1980-89

127

614

26.1

1990-98

95

709

15.5

Source: Town Building Permit Records, Profile of the Nashua Region, Office of State Planning .

Table A-10 shows that the while the Town demonstrated a high rate of growth between 1990 and 1998, its fastest growing period was actually during the 1970s, when the number of units increased by 81.0%. It should be noted that the larger a community becomes, the less impact new dwelling units have on the rate of growth.

Housing Types

Table-A-11 describes the local breakdown of housing types. As the data clearly suggests, the single family detached home with occupied units is the most common followed by manufactured homes (86), and multi-family units (including duplexes) (25).

TABLE A-11

LOCAL HOUSING TYPES, MONT VERNON, 1998

 

Total

Units

 

Type of Housing

Number

%

Single family

598

84.3

Multi-family units

25

3.5

Manufactured Housing

86

12.1

     

Total

709

 

Source: Office of State Planning.

Housing Tenure

Housing tenure refers to whether or not a housing unit is owned or rented by the occupants. Most Mont Vernon residents own the dwellings they occupy. Table A-12 presents the tenure for Mont Vernon and the NRPC region in 1990. Of 614 housing units, 585 or 95.3% were occupied, 91.9% of those by owners and 8.1% by renters. Only Hollis (93.1%) had a higher percentage of owner occupied housing. In 1990, the number of rental units offered in Mont Vernon was less than any other town in the region. The U.S. Census defined the rental housing sub-population as about 29% of the regional housing stock in 1990. On a regional basis, Mont Vernon falls below the regional average in terms of the proportion of rental units. Since virtually all of the permits issued since then in Mont Vernon have been single family, it is safe to assume that this percentage has remained stable.

 

TABLE A-12

HOUSING TENURE IN THE NRPC REGION, 1990

 

# Occupied

Owner-Occupied

Renter-Occupied

Municipality

Units

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Amherst

2,988

2,718

91.0%

270

9.0%

Brookline

811

723

89.2%

88

10.9%

Hollis

1,942

1,810

93.2%

132

6.8%

Hudson

6,630

4,967

74.9%

1,663

25.1%

Litchfield

1,725

1,482

85.9%

243

14.1%

Lyndeborough

451

400

88.6%

51

11.3%

Merrimack

7,439

6,143

82.6%

1,296

17.4%

Milford

4,463

2,718

60.9%

1,745

39.1%

Mont Vernon

582

535

91.9%

47

8.1%

Nashua

31,051

17,920

57.7%

13,131

42.3%

Pelham

2,907

2,463

84.7%

444

15.3%

Wilton

1,152

841

73.0%

311

27.0%

           

Hillsborough County

124,567

79,363

63.7%

45,204

36.3%

State of NH

411,186

280,372

68.2%

130,814

31.8%

Source: 1990 US Census.

Building Permit Characteristics

Table A-13 indicates that a total of 116 housing units were permitted. Of these, 98 (84.5%) were single family, and 18 (15.5%) were manufactured.

TABLE A-13

BUILDING PERMIT ACTIVITY IN MONT VERNON

Year

New Single

Family Home

Duplex

Mobile

Home

Condo

Total

1990

9

0

0

0

9

1991

5

0

1

0

6

1992

11

0

1

0

12

1993

7

0

3

0

10

1994

13

0

3

0

16

1995

9

0

4

0

13

1996

12

0

1

0

13

1997

1

0

2

0

3

1998

12

0

1

0

13

1999

19

0

2

0

22

           

Total

98

0

18

0

116

Source: Mont Vernon Town Reports.

Housing Values

As Table A-14 depicts, in 1998 Mont Vernon’s average sales price was $214,000, which ranked second in the region. Mont Vernon also had the fastest increase in average sales price for the both the periods of 1991-1998 (59.0%) and 1994-1998 (49.0%).

TABLE A-14

AVERAGE (MEAN) RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICES, MUNICIPALITIES

1998, 1994 and 1991 Comparison

Municipality

1998

1994

1991

% Change

1994-1998

% Change

1991-1998

Amherst

$196,000

$188,226

$174,296

4.0%

12.4%

Brookline

$168,000

$147,668

$147,795

13.8%

13.7%

Hollis

$241,000

$208,604

$228,355

15.5%

5.5%

Hudson

$130,000

$120,052

$119,094

8.3%

9.2%

Litchfield

$146,000

$102,358

$116,528

21.3%

24.8%

Lyndeborough

N/A

$102,509

$106,972

N/A

N/A

Merrimack

$127,000

$122,722

$129,275

3.5%

-1.8%

Milford

$137,302

$108,341

$110,443

24.3%

24.1%

Mont Vernon

$214,000

$143,590

$134,630

49.0%

59.0%

Nashua

$135,000

$118,463

$126,523

14.0%

6.7%

Pelham

$164,000

$131,749

$148,500

24.5%

10.4%

Wilton

$110,000

$108,208

$157,269

1.7%

-30.1%

           

Greater Nashua

$140,836

$118,510

$128,171

19.2%

10.0%

State of NH

$118,084

$111,603

$119,364

5.8%

-1.1%

Source: NRPC Housing Needs Assessment, 1999, which was derived from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors, 1998, 1994 and 1991; municipal data derived from a sample conducted by NRPC of every fifth residential sale. N/A indicates that data not available or sample size too small.

TABLE A-15

MONT VERNON BUILDING PERMITS FOR NEW RESIDENTIAL UNITS, 1999

Type

of

Housing

Est. Value

of

Property

Square

Footage

of Livable Sp.

Lot

Size

Number

of

Garages

Single

200,000

2,688

3.90

2

Single

N/A

2,510

1.38

2

Single

200,000

3,008

2.50

2

Single

130,000

2,240

5.00

2

Single

180,000

2,296

2.08

2

Single

170,000

2,672

1.54

2

Single

200,000

3,068

1.92

2

Single

190,000

2,628

1.364

2

Single

190,000

2,738

3.80

2

Single

85,000

1,664

1.69

--

Single

280,000

2,576

5.15

2

Single

75,000

1,786

1.84

1

Single

95,000

2,343

1.56

--

Single

180,000

2,112

5.60

2

Single

98,000

1,768

2.00

 

Single

145,000

2,296

11.99

2

Single

200,000

3,120

2.138

2

Single

240,000

2,179

20.81

--

Manufactured

51,000

1,512

¾

--

Single

255,000

2,802

25.00

3

Modular

52,500

1,060

1.00

--

Modular

N/A

5,00

N/A

--

Mean

159,325

2,253

4.90

 

Median

190,000

2,296

2.10

 

Source: Mont Vernon Assessor’s Office, calculated by NRPC.

Fair Share Analysis

The purposes of conducting a "fair share" analysis is discussed directly in the Population and Housing chapter. Table A-16 illustrates the analysis over eight years, from 1990-98 using residential building permits issued as the basis of comparison. The first tier is described as those towns immediately abutting Mont Vernon. The second tier are those towns surrounding the first tier. The table illustrates the growth rates in residential housing units within the two tiers and describes the proportional distribution of growth for a one year period from 1997 to 1998 and for the period from 1990 to 1998.

The rate of growth for Mont Vernon from 1990 to 1998, 15.5% or 1.7% per annum, is similar to the total change in the first tier, 15.2%, and lower than the second tier, 19%. This change is within the range for the two-tier region where housing growth varied from 6.2% in Francestown to 49.4% in Brookline. The housing growth in Mont Vernon at 15.5%, is less than the total change for the two tiers, which increased by 17.9% over the eight-year period. The number of building permits issued in Mont Vernon has been relatively steady through the period from 1991 to 1998, with a high of 16 in 1994 and a low of 3 in 1997, for an average of 10.6 building permits per year.

TABLE A-16

FAIR SHARE ANALYSIS, 1990-19981

Mont Vernon, New Hampshire

 

Existing

Units

1990

Local Change

1990-98

Annual % Change

1990-1998

FIRST TIER