APPENDIX A: POPULATION AND HOUSING
This appendix provides all of the population and housing statistics that are used in this report. The Office of State Planning provides population estimates every year, as required by New Hampshire law (see methodology in Appendix A). The Office of State Planning bases these statistics upon building permit activity, as reported by municipalities. These are the most current official comparative statistics available.
In addition to Census data and OSP estimates, many of the derivations found in this chapter have been taken from Regional Housing Needs Assessment, 1999 by NRPC.
Population Change
Since the 1930’s, the population has increased to the estimated level of 1,982 in 1998 largely due to the proximity of Mont Vernon to major employment centers in the region. Major increases began to occur between 1950 and 1960, when the population grew a yearly average of 4.4%. The following decades saw a population increase of 5.5% and 5.9% respectively. Between 1980 and 1990, the population of the Town grew at a rate of 2.6%. In 1998, the rate of population growth was 1.2%.
Despite the decreasing rate of growth, between 1990 and 1998, Mont Vernon (9.4%) has grown faster than the Nashua Region (8.6%), Hillsborough County (8.4%) and the State of New Hampshire (6.8%).
TABLE A-1
MONT VERNON POPULATION CHANGE 1890-1998
|
Year |
Population |
% Change |
Numerical Change |
Avg. Annual Change |
|
1880 |
517 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
|
1890 |
479 |
-7.4 |
-38 |
-.7 |
|
1900 |
462 |
-5.4 |
-17 |
-.5 |
|
1910 |
413 |
-8.8 |
-49 |
-.9 |
|
1920 |
308 |
-25.4 |
-105 |
-2.5 |
|
1930 |
302 |
-1.9 |
-6 |
-.2 |
|
1940 |
340 |
12.8 |
38 |
1.3 |
|
1950 |
405 |
19.1 |
65 |
1.9 |
|
1960 |
585 |
44.4 |
180 |
4.4 |
|
1970 |
906 |
54.9 |
321 |
5.5 |
|
1980 |
1,444 |
59.4 |
538 |
5.9 |
|
1990 |
1,812 |
25.5 |
368 |
2.6 |
|
1998* |
1,982 |
9.4 |
170 |
1.2 |
Source: US Census (1890-1990) and *1998 OSP Population Estimate.
TABLE A-2
POPULATION CHANGE 1960-1998
|
|
Mont Vernon Pop. |
% Change |
Nashua Region Pop. |
% Change |
Hills. Co. Pop. |
% Change |
NH Pop. |
% Change |
|
1960 |
585 |
44.4 |
63,893 |
- |
178,161 |
- |
606,900 |
- |
|
1970 |
906 |
54.9 |
100,862 |
57.9 |
223,941 |
25.7 |
737,579 |
21.5 |
|
1980 |
1,444 |
59.4 |
138,089 |
36.9 |
276,608 |
23.5 |
920,475 |
19.9 |
|
1990 |
1,812 |
25.5 |
171,478 |
24.2 |
335,838 |
21.4 |
1,109,252 |
20.5 |
|
1998* |
1,982 |
9.4 |
186,499 |
8.6 |
363,917 |
8.3 |
1,185,000 |
6.8 |
Source: US Decennial Censuses 1960 - 1990 and *1998 OSP Population Estimate.
TABLE A-3
POPULATION CHANGE BETWEEN 1990-1998
RANKED BY COMMUNITY
|
Municipality |
Pop. 1990 |
Pop. 1998 |
% Change |
|
1. Nashua |
79,662 |
83,209 |
4.45% |
|
2. Merrimack |
22,156 |
23,899 |
7.87% |
|
3. Hudson |
19,530 |
21,723 |
11.23% |
|
4. Milford |
11,795 |
12,859 |
9.02% |
|
5. Pelham |
9,408 |
10,793 |
14.72% |
|
6. Amherst |
9,068 |
10,229 |
12.80% |
|
7. Litchfield |
5,516 |
6,844 |
24.08% |
|
8. Hollis |
5,705 |
6,760 |
18.49% |
|
9. Brookline |
2,410 |
3,408 |
41.41% |
|
10. Wilton |
3,122 |
3,332 |
6.73% |
|
11. Mont Vernon |
1,812 |
1,982 |
9.38% |
|
12. Lyndeborough |
1,212 |
1,416 |
16.83% |
|
Nashua Region |
171,396 |
186,454 |
8.79% |
|
State of NH |
1,109,177 |
1,185,000 |
6.84% |
Current Population Estimates
TABLE A-4
CURRENT POPULATION ESTIMATES
|
1998 Rank Municipality |
1998 OSP Estimate |
1990 US Census |
1980 US Census |
|
1. Nashua |
83,209 |
79,662 |
67,865 |
|
2. Merrimack |
23,899 |
22,156 |
15,406 |
|
3. Hudson |
21,723 |
19,530 |
14,022 |
|
4. Milford |
12,859 |
11,795 |
8,658 |
|
5. Pelham |
10,793 |
9,408 |
8,090 |
|
6. Amherst |
10,229 |
9,068 |
8,243 |
|
7. Litchfield |
6,844 |
5,516 |
4,150 |
|
8. Hollis |
6,760 |
5,705 |
4,679 |
|
9. Brookline |
3,408 |
2,410 |
1,766 |
|
10. Wilton |
3,332 |
3,122 |
2,669 |
|
11. Mont Vernon |
1,982 |
1,812 |
1,444 |
|
12. Lyndeborough |
1,416 |
1,212 |
792 |
|
Nashua Region |
186,454 |
171,396 |
137,784 |
|
State of NH |
1,185,000 |
1,109,177 |
920,475 |
Population Projections
Mont Vernon’s population is expected to continue growing by approximately 1.7% annually over the next 20 years. If projections hold true, this growth may add more than 1,000 persons by 2020; however, the actual rate of growth in any community is unpredictable and due to forces beyond the local control. Keeping this in mind, it can be reasonably expected that Mont Vernon will likely grow slower than the NRPC communities of Brookline, Litchfield and Hollis, but at a similar rate with the remaining communities with the exception of Nashua.
TABLE A-5
|
1990 |
1996 |
% Change |
% Annual |
||||||
|
Town |
Census |
Est. Pop. |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
('90-'20) |
('90-'20) |
|
Amherst |
9,068 |
9,663 |
10,300 |
11,295 |
12,113 |
13,547 |
14,686 |
62% |
2.1% |
|
Brookline |
2,410 |
3,128 |
4,140 |
5,135 |
5,953 |
7,243 |
8,279 |
244% |
8.1% |
|
Hollis |
5,705 |
6,481 |
7,374 |
8,535 |
9,299 |
10,696 |
11,940 |
109% |
3.6% |
|
Hudson |
19,530 |
21,072 |
23,156 |
24,904 |
26,267 |
29,013 |
31,656 |
62% |
2.1% |
|
Litchfield |
5,516 |
6,540 |
7,612 |
8,856 |
9,674 |
10,749 |
11,785 |
114% |
3.8% |
|
Lyndeborough |
1,294 |
1,414 |
1,557 |
1,756 |
1,920 |
2,178 |
2,427 |
88% |
2.9% |
|
Merrimack |
22,156 |
23,200 |
24,601 |
26,664 |
28,126 |
30,813 |
32,886 |
48% |
1.6% |
|
Milford |
11,795 |
12,660 |
13,392 |
14,452 |
15,106 |
16,073 |
17,006 |
44% |
1.5% |
|
Mont Vernon |
1,812 |
1,960 |
2,115 |
2,326 |
2,448 |
2,708 |
2,978 |
64% |
2.1% |
|
Nashua |
79,662 |
82,285 |
84,667 |
86,906 |
87,997 |
89,072 |
91,145 |
14% |
0.5% |
|
Pelham |
9,408 |
10,374 |
11,506 |
13,082 |
14,118 |
15,730 |
17,285 |
84% |
2.8% |
|
Wilton |
3,122 |
3,243 |
3,433 |
3,704 |
3,889 |
4,104 |
4,363 |
40% |
1.3% |
|
Regional Total |
171,478 |
182,020 |
216,910 |
231,926 |
44% |
1.5% |
Source: New Hampshire Population Projections, 1997, New Hampshire Office of State Planning.
Age Distribution
TABLE A-6
MONT VERNON, NRPC REGION, STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
|
Age |
Mont Vernon Number |
% Total |
Region Number |
% Total |
State Number |
% Total |
|
0 - 4 |
151 |
8.3 |
14,087 |
8.2 |
84,631 |
7.6 |
|
5 -9 |
164 |
9.1 |
12,698 |
7.4 |
80,429 |
7.3 |
|
10 -14 |
146 |
8.1 |
11,549 |
6.7 |
71,748 |
6.5 |
|
15 -19 |
124 |
6.8 |
11,466 |
6.7 |
76,448 |
6.9 |
|
20-24 |
85 |
4.7 |
11,827 |
6.9 |
82,102 |
7.4 |
|
25-34 |
269 |
14.8 |
34,657 |
20.2 |
205,815 |
18.6 |
|
35-44 |
367 |
20.3 |
29,766 |
17.4 |
183,649 |
16.6 |
|
45-54 |
225 |
12.4 |
18,920 |
11.0 |
111,387 |
10.0 |
|
55-59 |
71 |
3.9 |
6,635 |
3.9 |
43,851 |
4.0 |
|
60-64 |
64 |
3.5 |
5,732 |
3.3 |
44,208 |
4.0 |
|
65-74 |
75 |
4.1 |
8,415 |
4.9 |
71,837 |
6.5 |
|
75+ |
71 |
3.9 |
5,726 |
3.3 |
53,147 |
4.8 |
|
Total |
1812 |
100.0 |
171,478 |
100.0 |
1,109,252 |
100.0 |
Source: 1990 US Census.
TABLE A-7
MONT VERNON, 1970-90
|
Age |
1970 Total |
% of Total |
1980 Total |
% of Total |
1990 Total |
% of Total |
|
0 to 4 |
114 |
12.6 |
97 |
6.7 |
151 |
8.3 |
|
5 to 19 |
283 |
31.2 |
412 |
28.5 |
434 |
24.0 |
|
20 to 34 |
197 |
21.7 |
365 |
25.3 |
354 |
19.5 |
|
35 to 64 |
247 |
27.3 |
475 |
32.9 |
727 |
40.1 |
|
65 + |
65 |
7.2 |
95 |
6.6 |
146 |
8.1 |
|
Total |
906 |
100 |
1,444 |
100 |
1812 |
100 |
Source: US Census.
The percentage of school children in 1990 age 5-19 was greater than that for the region, 24.0% compared to 20.8%. While the relative percentage of individuals in this category has declined since 1970 from 31.2% to 24.0%, the actual number had increased from 283 to 434. The percentage of pre-school children was slightly higher than that for the region.
The working age population between ages 20 to 64 has steadily increased in numbers and percentages, from 49% in 1970 to 59.6% in 1990. The greatest increase occurred in the population aged 35-64 . Between 1970 and 1990, this age group increased from 247 to 727 persons representing 27.3% and 40.1 % of the total population. As of 1990, the percentage of Mont Vernon’s population aged 35-64, was higher than the same category for the region, county, or state, 35.6, 34.2, and 34.5% respectively. The other segment of the working population aged 20-34 actually showed a decrease between 1980 and 1990 from 25.3 to 19.5%. The data suggests that the age distribution in Mont Vernon, as it is throughout the country is fast approaching retirement age.
Housing Supply
During the 1970’s, the population increased by nearly 60%, and housing units increased by 81%. The 1980’s saw increases in population and housing at similar rates. Other communities in the region had housing growth outstripping population growth, in part due to more conspicuous reductions in household size. An economic downturn in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s slowed the growth of both housing and population. Between 1990 and 1997, a total of 78 building permits were issued, indicating that growth continues, but at a more reasonable rate.
TABLE A-8
MONT VERNON HOUSING GROWTH 1990-1998
|
New |
Total |
|
|
Year |
Units |
Housing Units |
|
1990 |
9 |
623 |
|
1991 |
6 |
629 |
|
1992 |
12 |
641 |
|
1993 |
10 |
651 |
|
1994 |
16 |
667 |
|
1995 |
13 |
680 |
|
1996 |
13 |
693 |
|
1997 |
3 |
696 |
|
1998 |
13 |
709 |
|
1999 |
22 |
731 |
|
Average |
11.7 |
N/A |
Source: Office of State Planning; 1999 data from Mont Vernon Annual Report.
TABLE A-9
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT ACTIVITY, 1990-1998
Proportional Growth, Ranked
|
Rank/ Community |
Housing Units, 1990 |
Housing Units, 1998 |
Percent Change 1990-1998 |
|
1. Brookline |
881 |
1,316 |
49.4% |
|
2. Litchfield |
1,845 |
2,393 |
29.7% |
|
3. Hollis |
2,006 |
2,499 |
24.6% |
|
4. Lyndeborough |
488 |
584 |
19.7% |
|
5. Amherst |
3,179 |
3,784 |
19.0% |
|
6. Pelham |
3,118 |
3,707 |
18.9% |
|
7. Mont Vernon |
614 |
709 |
15.5% |
|
8. Hudson |
6,902 |
7,917 |
14.7% |
|
9. Merrimack |
7,915 |
8,846 |
11.8% |
|
10. Milford |
4,793 |
5,276 |
10.1% |
|
11. Wilton |
1,251 |
1,364 |
9.0% |
|
12. Nashua |
33,383 |
34,771 |
4.2% |
|
NRPC Region |
66,375 |
73,166 |
10.2% |
|
State of NH |
502,247 |
546,744 |
8.9% |
Source: NRPC Housing Needs Assessment, from Office of State Planning estimates.
Tables A-10 and A-11 show the extent of growth in new dwelling units that has occurred in the Nashua region and state between 1990 and 1997. Mont Vernon (12.7%) ranked well above the regional (8.6%) and State (7.5%) in terms of growth rate during this time. Mont Vernon was the seventh fastest growing community in the region during this time.
TABLE A-10
Mont Vernon
|
New |
Total |
% Change |
|
|
Year |
Units |
Units |
Units |
|
1960-69 |
N/A |
269 |
N/A |
|
1970-79 |
218 |
487 |
81.0 |
|
1980-89 |
127 |
614 |
26.1 |
|
1990-98 |
95 |
709 |
15.5 |
Source: Town Building Permit Records, Profile of the Nashua Region, Office of State Planning .
Table A-10 shows that the while the Town demonstrated a high rate of growth between 1990 and 1998, its fastest growing period was actually during the 1970s, when the number of units increased by 81.0%. It should be noted that the larger a community becomes, the less impact new dwelling units have on the rate of growth.
Housing Types
Table-A-11 describes the local breakdown of housing types. As the data clearly suggests, the single family detached home with occupied units is the most common followed by manufactured homes (86), and multi-family units (including duplexes) (25).
TABLE A-11
LOCAL HOUSING TYPES, MONT VERNON, 1998
|
Total Units |
||
|
Type of Housing |
Number |
% |
|
Single family |
598 |
84.3 |
|
Multi-family units |
25 |
3.5 |
|
Manufactured Housing |
86 |
12.1 |
|
Total |
709 |
Source: Office of State Planning.
Housing Tenure
Housing tenure refers to whether or not a housing unit is owned or rented by the occupants. Most Mont Vernon residents own the dwellings they occupy. Table A-12 presents the tenure for Mont Vernon and the NRPC region in 1990. Of 614 housing units, 585 or 95.3% were occupied, 91.9% of those by owners and 8.1% by renters. Only Hollis (93.1%) had a higher percentage of owner occupied housing. In 1990, the number of rental units offered in Mont Vernon was less than any other town in the region. The U.S. Census defined the rental housing sub-population as about 29% of the regional housing stock in 1990. On a regional basis, Mont Vernon falls below the regional average in terms of the proportion of rental units. Since virtually all of the permits issued since then in Mont Vernon have been single family, it is safe to assume that this percentage has remained stable.
TABLE A-12
HOUSING TENURE IN THE NRPC REGION, 1990
|
# Occupied |
Owner-Occupied |
Renter-Occupied |
|||
|
Municipality |
Units |
Number |
Percent |
Number |
Percent |
|
Amherst |
2,988 |
2,718 |
91.0% |
270 |
9.0% |
|
Brookline |
811 |
723 |
89.2% |
88 |
10.9% |
|
Hollis |
1,942 |
1,810 |
93.2% |
132 |
6.8% |
|
Hudson |
6,630 |
4,967 |
74.9% |
1,663 |
25.1% |
|
Litchfield |
1,725 |
1,482 |
85.9% |
243 |
14.1% |
|
Lyndeborough |
451 |
400 |
88.6% |
51 |
11.3% |
|
Merrimack |
7,439 |
6,143 |
82.6% |
1,296 |
17.4% |
|
Milford |
4,463 |
2,718 |
60.9% |
1,745 |
39.1% |
|
Mont Vernon |
582 |
535 |
91.9% |
47 |
8.1% |
|
Nashua |
31,051 |
17,920 |
57.7% |
13,131 |
42.3% |
|
Pelham |
2,907 |
2,463 |
84.7% |
444 |
15.3% |
|
Wilton |
1,152 |
841 |
73.0% |
311 |
27.0% |
|
Hillsborough County |
124,567 |
79,363 |
63.7% |
45,204 |
36.3% |
|
State of NH |
411,186 |
280,372 |
68.2% |
130,814 |
31.8% |
Source: 1990 US Census.
Building Permit Characteristics
Table A-13 indicates that a total of 116 housing units were permitted. Of these, 98 (84.5%) were single family, and 18 (15.5%) were manufactured.
TABLE A-13
BUILDING PERMIT ACTIVITY IN MONT VERNON
|
Year |
New Single Family Home |
Duplex |
Mobile Home |
Condo |
Total |
|
1990 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
|
1991 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
|
1992 |
11 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
12 |
|
1993 |
7 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
10 |
|
1994 |
13 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
16 |
|
1995 |
9 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
13 |
|
1996 |
12 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
|
1997 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
|
1998 |
12 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
|
1999 |
19 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
22 |
|
Total |
98 |
0 |
18 |
0 |
116 |
Source: Mont Vernon Town Reports.
Housing Values
As Table A-14 depicts, in 1998 Mont Vernon’s average sales price was $214,000, which ranked second in the region. Mont Vernon also had the fastest increase in average sales price for the both the periods of 1991-1998 (59.0%) and 1994-1998 (49.0%).
TABLE A-14
AVERAGE (MEAN) RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICES, MUNICIPALITIES
1998, 1994 and 1991 Comparison
|
Municipality |
1998 |
1994 |
1991 |
% Change 1994-1998 |
% Change 1991-1998 |
|
Amherst |
$196,000 |
$188,226 |
$174,296 |
4.0% |
12.4% |
|
Brookline |
$168,000 |
$147,668 |
$147,795 |
13.8% |
13.7% |
|
Hollis |
$241,000 |
$208,604 |
$228,355 |
15.5% |
5.5% |
|
Hudson |
$130,000 |
$120,052 |
$119,094 |
8.3% |
9.2% |
|
Litchfield |
$146,000 |
$102,358 |
$116,528 |
21.3% |
24.8% |
|
Lyndeborough |
N/A |
$102,509 |
$106,972 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Merrimack |
$127,000 |
$122,722 |
$129,275 |
3.5% |
-1.8% |
|
Milford |
$137,302 |
$108,341 |
$110,443 |
24.3% |
24.1% |
|
Mont Vernon |
$214,000 |
$143,590 |
$134,630 |
49.0% |
59.0% |
|
Nashua |
$135,000 |
$118,463 |
$126,523 |
14.0% |
6.7% |
|
Pelham |
$164,000 |
$131,749 |
$148,500 |
24.5% |
10.4% |
|
Wilton |
$110,000 |
$108,208 |
$157,269 |
1.7% |
-30.1% |
|
Greater Nashua |
$140,836 |
$118,510 |
$128,171 |
19.2% |
10.0% |
|
State of NH |
$118,084 |
$111,603 |
$119,364 |
5.8% |
-1.1% |
Source: NRPC Housing Needs Assessment, 1999, which was derived from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors, 1998, 1994 and 1991; municipal data derived from a sample conducted by NRPC of every fifth residential sale. N/A indicates that data not available or sample size too small.
TABLE A-15
MONT VERNON BUILDING PERMITS FOR NEW RESIDENTIAL UNITS, 1999
|
Type of Housing |
Est. Value of Property |
Square Footage of Livable Sp. |
Lot Size |
Number of Garages |
|
Single |
200,000 |
2,688 |
3.90 |
2 |
|
Single |
N/A |
2,510 |
1.38 |
2 |
|
Single |
200,000 |
3,008 |
2.50 |
2 |
|
Single |
130,000 |
2,240 |
5.00 |
2 |
|
Single |
180,000 |
2,296 |
2.08 |
2 |
|
Single |
170,000 |
2,672 |
1.54 |
2 |
|
Single |
200,000 |
3,068 |
1.92 |
2 |
|
Single |
190,000 |
2,628 |
1.364 |
2 |
|
Single |
190,000 |
2,738 |
3.80 |
2 |
|
Single |
85,000 |
1,664 |
1.69 |
-- |
|
Single |
280,000 |
2,576 |
5.15 |
2 |
|
Single |
75,000 |
1,786 |
1.84 |
1 |
|
Single |
95,000 |
2,343 |
1.56 |
-- |
|
Single |
180,000 |
2,112 |
5.60 |
2 |
|
Single |
98,000 |
1,768 |
2.00 |
|
|
Single |
145,000 |
2,296 |
11.99 |
2 |
|
Single |
200,000 |
3,120 |
2.138 |
2 |
|
Single |
240,000 |
2,179 |
20.81 |
-- |
|
Manufactured |
51,000 |
1,512 |
¾ |
-- |
|
Single |
255,000 |
2,802 |
25.00 |
3 |
|
Modular |
52,500 |
1,060 |
1.00 |
-- |
|
Modular |
N/A |
5,00 |
N/A |
-- |
|
Mean |
159,325 |
2,253 |
4.90 |
|
|
Median |
190,000 |
2,296 |
2.10 |
Source: Mont Vernon Assessor’s Office, calculated by NRPC.
Fair Share Analysis
The purposes of conducting a "fair share" analysis is discussed directly in the Population and Housing chapter. Table A-16 illustrates the analysis over eight years, from 1990-98 using residential building permits issued as the basis of comparison. The first tier is described as those towns immediately abutting Mont Vernon. The second tier are those towns surrounding the first tier. The table illustrates the growth rates in residential housing units within the two tiers and describes the proportional distribution of growth for a one year period from 1997 to 1998 and for the period from 1990 to 1998.
The rate of growth for Mont Vernon from 1990 to 1998, 15.5% or 1.7% per annum, is similar to the total change in the first tier, 15.2%, and lower than the second tier, 19%. This change is within the range for the two-tier region where housing growth varied from 6.2% in Francestown to 49.4% in Brookline. The housing growth in Mont Vernon at 15.5%, is less than the total change for the two tiers, which increased by 17.9% over the eight-year period. The number of building permits issued in Mont Vernon has been relatively steady through the period from 1991 to 1998, with a high of 16 in 1994 and a low of 3 in 1997, for an average of 10.6 building permits per year.
TABLE A-16
FAIR SHARE ANALYSIS, 1990-19981
Mont Vernon, New Hampshire
|
Existing Units 1990 |
Local Change 1990-98 |
Annual % Change 1990-1998 |
|
|
FIRST TIER |
|||